Welcome to The Homework Guy Blog! Today we’re diving deep into a topic the media has blown out of proportion: the Trump Tariffs and their projected effect on car prices in America. You’ve probably seen headlines screaming about “The Great Car Crisis” or dire predictions that the sky is falling. Let’s set the record straight.

Is All the Tariff Hysteria Justified?

Short answer: No — and we apologize for those stirring panic with fear-based nonsense. Instead of giving in to hype, let’s look at what actually happened the last time these tariffs were introduced. Because — as you already know — the past is one of the best predictors of the future.

Let’s Roll Back the Clock: 2015–2020

We’re going back to the pre-pandemic years, when President Trump first slapped tariffs on steel, aluminum, and goods from China. At that time, the same media voices were warning us that new car prices were about to explode.

Did They? Nope.

Let’s take a look:

• 2015: Average new car price — $33,500
• 2016: $34,500 (+$1,000)
• 2017: $35,500 (+$1,000) — Tariffs began this year
• 2018: $36,500 (+$1,000)
• 2019: $37,500 (+$1,000)
• 2020: $38,500 (+$1,000)

That’s $5,000 over six years. A completely normal, predictable inflationary increase of about $833 per year — the exact same trend we saw before tariffs.

Automakers Screamed, But Prices Barely Moved

In 2017, as tariffs rolled in, automakers and industry experts cried foul, warning of massive price hikes. But the data doesn’t lie. Prices kept moving along at their usual pace. No $5,000 spikes. No sudden jumps. The so-called crisis was imaginary.

What About Used Cars?

Used vehicle prices follow new car trends. Since new car prices didn’t jump, neither did used. Today, we’d love to go back to those 2015–2019 prices.

Auto Sales Data Paints the Same Picture

Despite trade tensions and tariffs, the market stayed strong:

• 2015: 17.4 million cars sold
• 2016: 17.5 million
• 2017: 17.2 million
• 2018: 17.3 million
• 2019: 17.0 million
• 2020: 14.7 million (pandemic disruption)

Sales remained above 17 million units a year until COVID struck — hardly a market in crisis.

What We Expect in 2025

Looking ahead, we predict car prices will increase by $650–$850 this year — consistent with long-term inflation, not the result of tariffs. Dealers may become a bit less flexible on pricing, but there’s no evidence of a major spike looming. If any dealer adds a “market adjustment” fee and blames tariffs, walk away.

Why Didn’t Tariffs Cause Price Surges?

Manufacturers had pressure — from the economy, the market, and Trump himself — to not pass those costs onto consumers. President Trump even warned automakers directly this March not to raise prices, echoing his approach from 2017.

Plus, many manufacturers rushed inventory into the U.S. before tariffs took effect. And with Trump removing costly EV mandates, automakers are feeling some relief on the balance sheet.

The Media’s Missed the Mark Again

Once again, we’re seeing the media run wild with predictions of doom that just don’t hold up. From 2015 to 2020, the average price rise was steady, incremental, and unaffected by trade wars. If you believed the scare stories back then, you might have made poor buying decisions.

So What’s the Homework Guy Takeaway?

Don’t fall for the drama. Tariffs are a favorite boogeyman for car dealers, automaker lobbyists, and the media. But the data from 2015–2020 proves that prices didn’t surge. Our prediction for 2025 is a modest price increase that tracks with ordinary inflation — not a tariff-driven jump.

Bottom Line:

• Tariffs in 2017? Minimal impact.
• Prices rose steadily: ~$1,000 per year.
• No crash in sales. No runaway inflation.

A Final Word from Elizabeth:

In early March, President Trump told automakers not to raise prices — just like he did in 2017. And he reminded them they’d benefit from his rollback of the Biden EV mandates. With inflation and consumer resistance already high, automakers are unlikely to gamble by raising prices aggressively.

So next time someone says “Tariffs = price explosion,” tell them to do their homework. The numbers don’t lie.

Need Help Buying a Car?

Our Hassle-Free Car Buying Service continues to break records. March was our best month ever! Want help negotiating a great deal? Read the reviews on our website — real people, real results. Then head to our Facebook page to stay connected with our team.

And one more thing…

Our service isn’t for everyone. We need you to have a car in mind, your finances in order, and realistic expectations. We do math, not magic. But if you’re serious, we’ve got your back — just like we always have.

Thanks for reading, and God bless you all.

— Kevin Hunter & The Homework Guy Team